Best home run bets today – MLB HR predictions
July 10
Baseball’s long-ball market has exploded over the past two seasons, and “home run bets” now sit alongside strikeout props and same-game parlays as a daily staple. Below you’ll find a data-driven breakdown of the best odds to hit a homerun today, complete with context, matchup notes, and the reasoning that separates a smart wager from a blind swing. All odds are current as of 9 a.m. ET.
BEST HOME RUN PREDICTIONS TODAY
| Player | Match-up | Odds | Why we like it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Mets @ Yankees (G2) | +265 | Left-handed pull power into Yankee Stadium’s short porch vs. fly-ball righty Clarke Schmidt. |
| Cal Raleigh | Mariners @ Angels | +180 | 23 % barrel rate last ten games; faces Griffin Canning (2.1 HR/9 at home) in warm Anaheim weather. |
| CJ Abrams | Nationals vs Reds | +550 | .525 SLG vs. righties since June 1; Reds rookie Connor Phillips has allowed HRs in 3 straight Triple-A starts. |
These three headline our list for “hr bets today” because each checks several boxes at once: recent hard-hit surge, a fly-ball opponent on the mound, and a ballpark or weather pattern that adds just enough carry to turn deep fly balls into souvenirs.
Why these three deserve attention
Juan Soto is the obvious answer to “who will hit a home run today.” Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right is tailored for his upper-cut swing, and Clarke Schmidt’s cutter often leaks back over the middle. Soto’s rolling 30-day barrel rate sits near 18 percent – elite in any era. If the breeze drifts out to right, he becomes an automatic addition to most “home run predictor today” models.
Cal Raleigh isn’t a household name, but few catchers hit the ball as hard. Griffin Canning’s four-seam fastball loses life late, and warm summer nights in Anaheim usually boost exit velocity. At +180, the price is short, yet justified; Raleigh has homered in four of his last eleven games.
CJ Abrams is the value dart. Reds rookie Connor Phillips surrendered at least one homer in each of his last three Triple-A outings, and a flat slider in Nationals Park can turn a singles hitter into a slugger. Abrams owns a .525 slugging percentage against right-hand pitching since June 1, making him a sneaky addition to any “homerun prediction today” ticket.
How our model finds home-run edges
Instead of relying on raw season stats, we focus on what matters right now. First comes the rolling barrel rate: a batter who averaged three barrels per week in April but only one in the past month is less attractive than someone trending the other way. Next, we grade the opposing pitcher’s home-run profile—fly-ball percentage, hard-hit rate, and hot-zone location tendencies. Weather data follows: a ten-mile-per-hour wind blowing out to center adds more than a dozen feet of carry. Ballpark dimensions are crucial—Yankee Stadium and Great American Ball Park inflate long-ball numbers, while Comerica and Oracle dampen them. Finally, we shop lines. If Raleigh is +180 at one book and +205 at another, the extra 25 points pay off in the long run.
Combining those factors yields a nightly ranking of hitters most likely to leave the yard. We then cross-check prices: any slugger whose projection implies shorter odds than the market offers becomes a potential play in our list of “home run bets.”
Bankroll management notes
Home-run props are volatile. Even elite sluggers endure week-long droughts. The best approach is flat staking – risking the same amount per ticket – rather than chasing parlays. Track your closing-line value: if you bet Soto at +265 and he closes +240, you beat the market even if he finishes 0-for-4. That process focus separates sustainable profit from lucky streaks.
If you prefer bigger prices, Patrick Wisdom (+700) in Cincinnati and Teoscar Hernández (+450) in Colorado both sit just below our core trio. They carry lower probability but higher payout potential, ideal for small “homerun predictions” sprinkles.
In short, the answer to “which slugger has the best odds to hit homerun today?” changes every slate, but the principles stay constant: ride hot barrels, fade fly-ball pitchers, respect park factors, and always shop for the best number. Follow those rules, and you’ll give yourself a fighting chance to cash a ticket the next time the ball clears the fence.
Here’s how to locate the home-run prop market on each of our featured casinos.
- PariPesa: Sports → Baseball → MLB → Choose Matchup → “Players” tab → Home-Run Props
- 1xBet: Sportsbook → Baseball → MLB Props → Select Game → Player Home-Run Bets
- Pin-Up: Sports → Baseball → MLB → Pick Matchup → “Player Specials” section → Home-Run Odds
More betting insight from our analytics team
Our traders monitor MLB slugger trends around the clock, even on weekends. If you like today’s home-run bets, you’ll be glad to know we publish data-driven picks for every major U.S. sport—completely free, no paywall. Prefer long-form analysis from real people? Check our blog section for deep-dive previews with odds breakdowns, matchup notes, and fresh predictions on everything from baseball and football to esports and entertainment props. Want more diamond action? Browse our full slate of MLB picks and predictions; you’ll find totals, side plays, and prop angles updated daily.
